Visions for the Baltic Sea Region 2010 - Sub-regions as Engines in Regional Development

 
 
Thank you for the invitation to join the 10th BSSSC Conference. I am happy to give this last keynote address of the conference – sharing with you my visions for the Baltic Sea region in 2010.
The over-all goal for the Baltic Sea region - or my vision for the region - is that by 2010 the Baltic Sea region is the main growth centre of Europe.
It is a key player in the global trade system.
And, it is a region, which has a solidly based  foundation on the following cornerstones: Co-operation, peace, democracy, the rule of law, human rights and the protection of minorities.
This vision is based on the following three predictions:
· First, the enlargement of the European Union was secured during the European Council in Copenhagen in 2002.
In 2004, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland participated in the elections to the European Parliament .
Furthermore, after the Constitutional Treaty was adopted by the EU, both Denmark and Sweden finally skipped their various reservations and certain opt-out clauses and became full members of the EU! Norway of course joined the Euro after Sweden and Denmark woke up. And following that, in January 2008, Norway finally became a member of the EU.
· Second prediction: a Baltic Free Trade Area including Russia is on track in 2010. Russia is not applying for EU membership but is a member of the WTO and has in principle adopted the EU aquis in order to establish the Baltic Sea Free Trade Area.
As a consequence of these efforts,  Kaliningrad has managed to promote itself as a Euro Bridge to Russia's mainland. In 2010, Kaliningrad's growth rates are as high as the Baltic countries' and as Poland's growth rates were back in the 1990's.
· Third prediction: the EU enlargement will have led to a relaxed security situation, where nobody ever questioned the fact that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined NATO.
Russia, as well as other CIS countries, has for many years been NATO's most important partner. The tragic September 11 events in 2001 and the war on international terror became a powerful catalyst for this.
In 2010, NATO is an important international organisation with the Baltic Sea countries as key actors. The war against terror forced NATO to readjust to the challenges of the new world order and it succeeded within a few years. So, when the member countries invoke NATO's Article 5, NATO automatically engages all assets and capabilities, as originally intended.
These are my predictions. Or you might call it “hopes”. Because this is how I want to see our region in the future. However, to achieve this vision we must continue to strengthen both the regional and the sub-regional co-operation around the Baltic Sea.
I am confident that this actually can and will be accomplished.  - Even though it may seem a little distant and maybe too much of a dream for some of you today.
But - if some of you feel that my fantasy is running away with my sound judgement – let me just remind you that a few years ago, at the end of the 1990's, people would smile leniently when some of us envisioned that the Baltic countries, together with Poland, could be full members of the EU by 2004.
Furthermore, membership of NATO for the Baltic countries was out of the question in the late 1990's. People shook their heads when we said that Baltic membership of NATO would, in the future, be seen as an improvement of the common security in the region. I remember when I said so at the annual Leangkollen-conference near Oslo in 1994 there was silence in the room – like people were feeling a little embarrassed being confronted with such wild dreams.
No-one ever believed that these goals would be embraced by the region's governments and business community as soon as in 2001.
But this actually happened. And as I said, September 11 became a strong catalyst for this.
And let that be a lesson to us all: We should never shy away from setting our goals and ambitions and dreams very, very high… Let our fantasies define the limits to the tasks we give ourselves!
During the 3rd annual Baltic Development Forum Summit in St. Petersburg, which was held 14 days after the terror attacks, the summit participants embraced almost all of the ideas of how a future Baltic Sea Region should look - and today membership of EU and NATO for all the small countries in the Baltic Sea region will soon become reality.
Our St. Petersburg summit obviously became a landmark in the efforts to break down barriers and strengthen ties between the countries in the Baltic Sea region.
Moreover, think of what we have achieved in the Baltic Sea region if we look a little further down the road, that is: since 1989.
With the unification of Germany and the break-up of the bipolar world order, we restored the historical unity of the peoples of Europe.
In 1993, this chain of events eventually led to the establishment of the Copenhagen Criteria that had to be fulfilled if you wanted to join the EU. They  were agreed upon during the European Council in Copenhagen.
The Copenhagen Criteria finally offered the Central and Eastern European countries the chance of joining the EU – after much talk about Europe Agreements or “concentric circles” or other surrogates for what should have offered in clear language even earlier: full membership for the new democracies whose peoples had taken back their freedom!
And while the Enlargement too many times was at risk because of petty national interests within the EU, half of Europe - or rather the rest of Europe - moved peacefully from dictatorship to democracy. The road that the candidate countries have taken is nothing less than revolutionary.
Their achievements are remarkable:
· they have held free and fair national, regional and local elections;
· they have adopted thousands of laws and regulations in order to change their societies;
· they have been able to train civil servants and magistrates to interpret and apply this new EU aquis.
All in all, the candidate countries now meet  the political criteria laid down in 1993 at the European Council in Copenhagen. The EU-Commission made that clear a forthnight ago.
Now is the time for the EU to deliver on the enlargement promises.
Due to the Enlargement, the Baltic Sea region today has the opportunity to build a common future on shared fundamental values: those of Cooperation, peace, democracy, the rule of law, human rights and the protection of minorities.
And that includes Russia.
In a message to the Baltic Development Forum Summit in St. Petersburg last year, President  Putin, said that the preservation of political stability in the region, its dynamic economic growth and the promotion of the European integration is in Russia's strategic interest:
“We are convinced that the Baltic Sea Region can and must become the symbol of constructive international partnership”, was the message from the Russian President.
I agreed with President Putin then. And I agree now. We are on the right track but now is the time to set new operative agendas and priorities for our region in the new Europe.
That especially goes for Kaliningrad. Kaliningrad is obviously a challenge now - and will remain one after the enlargement process has been concluded. Kaliningrad and especially its long term development was highlighted at our summit in Copenhagen.
Kaliningrad will - within very few years  - find itself surrounded by EU member countries. Many seems to regard this as a problem. I truly believe that the EU Enlargement will bring renewed impetus to Kaliningrad. But this will not come out of the blue air. Together we must forge a clear vision and a stringent long-term plan – and secure the necessary political and financial support.
Kaliningrad ought to become an integrated part of the dynamic Baltic Sea region as soon as possible.
If we can realize this vision within a few years, we would not only take a historic step forward, we would lay a strong foundation for the future Baltic Sea co-operation.
When it comes to the Northern Dimension, we need to put flesh and blood on the next Action Plan. And it is important that we define the flesh to squeeze out the blood.
Also, you will have to sell the project, that is the Northern Dimension. Especially, you need to sell it to Russia. Thus, you need to have bread on the table and by that I mean, a budget line!
All these messages have, of course, been brought forward to the European Council taking place in Brussels the minute we are sitting here!
However, our future does not depend solely on Brussels. It certainly depends, first and foremost, on how we manage to cooperate in our region. We shape our region ourselves. That is what history has taught us.
We decide ourselves if we want to continue on the road of growth, prosperity and stability, which we have been able to build during the last 13 years. And if we manage to stay on this road, I am sure we can realise the visions, I have presented for you today.
We shall continue to strengthen our regional and sub-regional co-operation. Only then can we realise the Baltic Sea Region as a future growth centre in Europe and in the new world order.
With these words, thank you - and enjoy Lillehammer the rest of the day.