BDF Report on Electricity Systems in Kaliningrad

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BDF and Ea Energy Analyses present report on Scenarios for the Development of Electricity Systems in Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea Region

Closer cooperation, dialogue and joint energy planning initiatives are necessary elements, if the electricity system in the Baltic Sea Region is to develop in an economically and environmentally sustainable fashion; thus avoiding expensive, isolated solutions that are primarily driven by local demands for improved security of energy supply. This is particularly true when looking at the relationship between the EU countries and their Russian neighbour in the Baltic Sea Region. This is one of the overall conclusions of the new report “Sustainable Energy Scenarios – Energy Perspectives for the Kaliningrad Region as an Integrated Part of the Baltic Sea Region“, which has been prepared by Ea Energy Analyses and Baltic Development Forum (BDF).

The competing plans to expand the nuclear sector in the countries around the Baltic Sea risk creating confusion and uncertainty regarding the future energy supply. The report explores different investment strategies for the energy sector from a technical perspective rather than a political perspective. The analysis reveals how an optimal energy plan for Kaliningrad and neighbouring countries could evolve. The analysis focuses on the electricity sector and the plans to build new nuclear power plants in Kaliningrad oblast, Lithuania and other countries in the region.

Russia’s foremost interest in expanding the nuclear sector in Kaliningrad is linked to her ambition to supply the larger Central European energy market with electricity, rather than just the local and regional markets. A possible Russian objective could be to become the main supplier to Europe of not just natural gas, but also of electricity.

Lithuania wishes to re-establish a nuclear power capacity after the closure of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant. At the same time, the wind power is expected to increase in the Baltic countries due to the EU’s renewable energy target. The expansion of both nuclear power and wind power places additional demands on the exchange capacity between the countries in the entire Baltic Sea Region. It calls for a better coordination of the energy infrastructure planning as well as a further integration of the electricity markets. There is also a need to establish a regional stakeholder forum that can bring together the various players and thereby strengthen the cross-border cooperation, especially within the electricity sector in the Baltic Sea Region.

The report’s point of departure is the previous study entitled ”Sustainable energy scenarios – Energy Perspectives for the Baltic Sea Region”, which was presented in 2009 by BDF and Ea Energy Analyses. The study demonstrated how the energy sector of the entire Baltic Sea Region could become much stronger through better coordination. The analysis included two overall scenarios on how to implement the EU energy and climate targets within the energy and transport sectors by making better use of the region’s energy mix. This has been investigated via detailed analyses based on the precondition that within the electricity and district heating sectors the targets are to reduce CO2 emissions in 2030 by 50% relative to 1990 figures and to reduce oil consumption in 2030 by 50% relative to 2005 figures.

Both reports have been discussed with politicians, civil servants, energy companies and other relevant stakeholders in the countries around the Baltic Sea Region. One of the aims has been to improve the energy dialogue between Russia and the EU countries of the region by highlighting the advantages of developing joint approaches to planning and expansion of the energy systems in the region.

To download the report click here.

For further information contact

Hans Brask, Director, Baltic Development Forum, Phone: +45 6021 8581, E-mail:

Arne Grove, Director, Nordic Council of Ministers’ Information Office in Kaliningrad E-mail:

Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses, Phone: +45 6039 1703, E-mail:
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